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Overlays


Overlay Statistics by Track

 

The table below indicates a probable bias towards some tracks when considering overlays. This is because HRT prices are derived from very track specific data (i.e. ratings awarded for front runner performance at track and distance etc etc).  Our interest in this table below is to determine if these track specific trends continue and if we can therefore recommend a portfolio of tracks to follow and/or avoid some time in the future.

 

General Notes

Only overlays in the TOP 5 HRT Prices are reported on. Confidence Factor ratings have not been considered.
Taking underlays is not encouraged and not reported on. Information is also not suitable for developing laying strategies.
These results are using TAB Prices. Any results above 90% - 95% should be considered favourable when using more competitive betting avenues (this assumes that the selections attract at least 10%-15% better odds due to the lower public opinion). 
Results from genuine pre-race calculated HRT Prices from 24/1/2002 to 24/9/2005 over 3.5 years without back-fitting! Better results may be obtainable with additional filters like including distance, track, jockey, trainer and tenacity positions in the EasyForm Tables.
We recommend caution when considering data with low volume 'Bet' results.
These results may not reflect future trends.
POT of 100% is a break-even result.

 

Filters Used

These filters were developed in mid 2002 and re-applied on recent data (3.5 years worth).  We could change these filters to improve our results, but thought it would be more meaningful if we remained with the old filters we had developed without hindsight in mind.   

Races eliminated in data:-
    1. Heavy tracks,
    2. Insufficient Form Races (IF),
    3. Race Data 5 or less.


Overlay codes

A "Small" overlay code below means that the overlay was between 1.0x to 1.5x.  A "Mid" overlay below is 1.5x to 2.5x and "Large" overlay below is 2.5x and more. Overlays calculated as (TAB Price -1) / (HRT Price -1). For example, a TAB price of $3.00 and a HRT Price of $2.00 means a 2.0x overlay (ie $2.00/$1.00) and classified as a "Mid" overlay. 

 

 

Track

Loc

 Overlay Bets Wins

Return
($)

Win
Strike

POT
ALBANY WA Small 192 29 152.7 15.1% 79.5%
ALBANY WA Mid 140 20 112.7 14.3% 80.5%
ALBANY WA Large 115 12 173.5 10.4% 150.9%
ALBURY NSW Small 177 23 167.8 13.0% 94.8%
ALBURY NSW Mid 168 19 194.2 11.3% 115.6%
ALBURY NSW Large 165 13 225.2 7.9% 136.5%
ARARAT Vic Small 85 9 54.3 10.6% 63.9%
ARARAT Vic Mid 84 9 92.2 10.7% 109.8%
ARARAT Vic Large 77 4 37.7 5.2% 49.0%
ARMIDALE NSW Small 97 6 36.6 6.2% 37.7%
ARMIDALE NSW Mid 101 14 105.4 13.9% 104.4%
ARMIDALE NSW Large 69 3 32.7 4.3% 47.4%
ARAWA PARK NZ Small 24 2 21.4 8.3% 89.2%
ARAWA PARK NZ Mid 24 3 22.3 12.5% 92.9%
ARAWA PARK NZ Large 29 2 24.0 6.9% 82.8%
ASCOT WA Small 777 117 709.5 15.1% 91.3%
ASCOT WA Mid 735 71 649.6 9.7% 88.4%
ASCOT WA Large 635 44 642.1 6.9% 101.1%
AVONDALE NZ Small 43 8 61.7 18.6% 143.5%
AVONDALE NZ Mid 54 7 67.3 13.0% 124.6%
AVONDALE NZ Large 44 2 38.3 4.5% 87.0%
AWAPUNI NZ Small 6 0 0.0 0.0% 0.0%
AWAPUNI NZ Mid 7 0 0.0 0.0% 0.0%
AWAPUNI NZ Large 0 0 0.0 0.0% 0.0%
BAIRNSDALE Vic Small 179 23 118.7 12.8% 66.3%
BAIRNSDALE Vic Mid 166 23 180.8 13.9% 108.9%
BAIRNSDALE Vic Large 139 13 262.5 9.4% 188.8%
BALAKLAVA SA Small 276 34 218.3 12.3% 79.1%
BALAKLAVA SA Mid 254 28 221.2 11.0% 87.1%
BALAKLAVA SA Large 214 14 157.5 6.5% 73.6%
BALLINA NSW Small 210 41 245.6 19.5% 117.0%
BALLINA NSW Mid 196 22 213.9 11.2% 109.1%
BALLINA NSW Large 183 8 93.7 4.4% 51.2%
BALLARAT Vic Small 311 40 255.4 12.9% 82.1%
BALLARAT Vic Mid 309 33 253.9 10.7% 82.2%
BALLARAT Vic Large 294 14 212.1 4.8% 72.1%
BATHURST NSW Small 216 32 173.7 14.8% 80.4%
BATHURST NSW Mid 206 23 170.9 11.2% 83.0%
BATHURST NSW Large 193 17 184.7 8.8% 95.7%
BEAUDESERT Qld Small 59 4 30.1 6.8% 51.0%
BEAUDESERT Qld Mid 49 5 45.3 10.2% 92.4%
BEAUDESERT Qld Large 57 4 36.0 7.0% 63.2%
BENDIGO Vic Small 435 47 294.4 10.8% 67.7%
BENDIGO Vic Mid 424 55 445.8 13.0% 105.1%
BENDIGO Vic Large 351 24 284.0 6.8% 80.9%
BERRIGAN NSW Small 28 4 23.2 14.3% 82.9%
BERRIGAN NSW Mid 26 5 37.9 19.2% 145.8%
BERRIGAN NSW Large 26 0 0.0 0.0% 0.0%
BENALLA Vic Small 189 25 155.3 13.2% 82.2%
BENALLA Vic Mid 163 23 197.9 14.1% 121.4%
BENALLA Vic Large 145 5 38.8 3.4% 26.8%
BELMONT PARK WA Small 1454 220 1211.8 15.1% 83.3%
BELMONT PARK WA Mid 1332 151 1247.4 11.3% 93.6%
BELMONT PARK WA Large 1100 79 1036.6 7.2% 94.2%
BORDERTOWN SA Small 88 14 99.6 15.9% 113.2%
BORDERTOWN SA Mid 91 11 63.3 12.1% 69.6%
BORDERTOWN SA Large 58 5 63.8 8.6% 110.0%
BROKEN HILL NSW Small 5 2 7.9 40.0% 158.0%
BROKEN HILL NSW Mid 12 2 15.9 16.7% 132.5%
BROKEN HILL NSW Large 5 0 0.0 0.0% 0.0%
BOWRAVILLE NSW Small 24 5 22.4 20.8% 93.3%
BOWRAVILLE NSW Mid 21 4 22.4 19.0% 106.7%
BOWRAVILLE NSW Large 13 1 10.2 7.7% 78.5%
BUNBURY WA Small 378 57 371.5 15.1% 98.3%
BUNBURY WA Mid 358 42 304.5 11.7% 85.1%
BUNBURY WA Large 283 16 193.1 5.7% 68.2%
CANBERRA ACT Small 383 57 300.4 14.9% 78.4%
CANBERRA ACT Mid 388 41 331.4 10.6% 85.4%
CANBERRA ACT Large 370 24 366.6 6.5% 99.1%
CAMPERDOWN Vic Small 33 6 43.7 18.2% 132.4%
CAMPERDOWN Vic Mid 37 4 19.6 10.8% 53.0%
CAMPERDOWN Vic Large 27 1 3.4 3.7% 12.6%
CAIRNS Qld Small 41 1 8.0 2.4% 19.5%
CAIRNS Qld Mid 46 6 57.9 13.0% 125.9%
CAIRNS Qld Large 38 3 24.8 7.9% 65.3%
CANTERBURY NSW Small 633 77 461.4 12.2% 72.9%
CANTERBURY NSW Mid 663 53 457.3 8.0% 69.0%
CANTERBURY NSW Large 580 43 571.6 7.4% 98.6%
CASINO NSW Small 54 4 23.9 7.4% 44.3%
CASINO NSW Mid 56 3 47.4 5.4% 84.6%
CASINO NSW Large 52 4 57.5 7.7% 110.6%
CASTERTON Vic Small 152 25 186.6 16.4% 122.8%
CASTERTON Vic Mid 149 19 127.8 12.8% 85.8%
CASTERTON Vic Large 120 7 84.4 5.8% 70.3%
CAULFIELD Vic Small 522 62 422.1 11.9% 80.9%
CAULFIELD Vic Mid 520 60 554.8 11.5% 106.7%
CAULFIELD Vic Large 385 25 404.2 6.5% 105.0%
CESSNOCK NSW Small 336 55 327.3 16.4% 97.4%
CESSNOCK NSW Mid 278 28 205.4 10.1% 73.9%
CESSNOCK NSW Large 242 16 214.8 6.6% 88.8%
CHELTENHAM SA Small 533 62 324.8 11.6% 60.9%
CHELTENHAM SA Mid 541 59 478.0 10.9% 88.4%
CHELTENHAM SA Large 426 28 388.1 6.6% 91.1%
CLARE SA Small 83 15 82.5 18.1% 99.4%
CLARE SA Mid 113 7 35.1 6.2% 31.1%
CLARE SA Large 79 10 82.2 12.7% 104.1%
COONABARABRAN NSW Small 45 8 58.1 17.8% 129.1%
COONABARABRAN NSW Mid 45 7 69.4 15.6% 154.2%
COONABARABRAN NSW Large 42 0 0.0 0.0% 0.0%
COFFS HARBOUR NSW Small 223 32 219.6 14.3% 98.5%
COFFS HARBOUR NSW Mid 243 28 244.2 11.5% 100.5%
COFFS HARBOUR NSW Large 176 9 168.2 5.1% 95.6%
COLAC Vic Small 92 9 60.1 9.8% 65.3%
COLAC Vic Mid 77 11 57.1 14.3% 74.2%
COLAC Vic Large 71 4 52.5 5.6% 73.9%
COLERAINE Vic Small 30 3 18.7 10.0% 62.3%
COLERAINE Vic Mid 31 6 53.9 19.4% 173.9%
COLERAINE Vic Large 32 2 19.5 6.3% 60.9%
COONAMBLE NSW Small 67 11 67.0 16.4% 100.0%
COONAMBLE NSW Mid 50 5 25.9 10.0% 51.8%
COONAMBLE NSW Large 60 1 36.1 1.7% 60.2%
COROWA NSW Small 59 10 54.7 16.9% 92.7%
COROWA NSW Mid 56 6 40.6 10.7% 72.5%
COROWA NSW Large 40 1 28.0 2.5% 70.0%
COOTAMUNDRA NSW Small 24 2 7.1 8.3% 29.6%
COOTAMUNDRA NSW Mid 22 1 15.2 4.5% 69.1%
COOTAMUNDRA NSW Large 12 1 18.3 8.3% 152.5%
COWRA NSW Small 65 11 63.3 16.9% 97.4%
COWRA NSW Mid 61 6 51.3 9.8% 84.1%
COWRA NSW Large 56 6 87.2 10.7% 155.7%
CRANBOURNE Vic Small 360 46 285.8 12.8% 79.4%
CRANBOURNE Vic Mid 351 36 314.4 10.3% 89.6%
CRANBOURNE Vic Large 312 22 344.0 7.1% 110.3%
DALBY Qld Small 77 10 69.4 13.0% 90.1%
DALBY Qld Mid 84 12 67.8 14.3% 80.7%
DALBY Qld Large 70 5 101.3 7.1% 144.7%
DEVONPORT Tas Small 223 36 179.3 16.1% 80.4%
DEVONPORT Tas Mid 204 24 130.6 11.8% 64.0%
DEVONPORT Tas Large 162 15 150.6 9.3% 93.0%
DONALD Vic Small 83 9 71.6 10.8% 86.3%
DONALD Vic Mid 76 9 99.7 11.8% 131.2%
DONALD Vic Large 65 5 50.5 7.7% 77.7%
DOOMBEN Qld Small 1051 154 971.3 14.7% 92.4%
DOOMBEN Qld Mid 1042 105 861.8 10.1% 82.7%
DOOMBEN Qld Large 793 47 758.4 5.9% 95.6%
DUBBO NSW Small 173 19 104.5 11.0% 60.4%
DUBBO NSW Mid 152 18 161.7 11.8% 106.4%
DUBBO NSW Large 158 9 66.5 5.7% 42.1%
DARGAVILLE NZ Small 8 0 0.0 0.0% 0.0%
DARGAVILLE NZ Mid 7 1 4.2 14.3% 60.0%
DARGAVILLE NZ Large 5 1 12.4 20.0% 248.0%
EAGLE FARM Qld Small 1200 169 1049.2 14.1% 87.4%
EAGLE FARM Qld Mid 1228 140 1205.8 11.4% 98.2%
EAGLE FARM Qld Large 983 56 831.1 5.7% 84.5%
ECHUCA Vic Small 247 35 201.5 14.2% 81.6%
ECHUCA Vic Mid 261 35 310.7 13.4% 119.0%
ECHUCA Vic Large 189 12 113.3 6.3% 59.9%
EDENHOPE Vic Small 64 7 34.4 10.9% 53.8%
EDENHOPE Vic Mid 80 16 120.0 20.0% 150.0%
EDENHOPE Vic Large 59 5 72.7 8.5% 123.2%
ESK Qld Small 56 8 48.0 14.3% 85.7%
ESK Qld Mid 65 5 40.8 7.7% 62.8%
ESK Qld Large 47 4 43.7 8.5% 93.0%
FANNIE BAY NT Small 37 11 61.5 29.7% 166.2%
FANNIE BAY NT Mid 34 12 102.3 35.3% 300.9%
FANNIE BAY NT Large 25 1 4.8 4.0% 19.2%
FLEMINGTON Vic Small 716 74 516.0 10.3% 72.1%
FLEMINGTON Vic Mid 711 70 697.8 9.8% 98.1%
FLEMINGTON Vic Large 559 26 386.9 4.7% 69.2%
FORBES NSW Small 27 4 30.4 14.8% 112.6%
FORBES NSW Mid 27 6 85.5 22.2% 316.7%
FORBES NSW Large 35 3 44.5 8.6% 127.1%
GATTON Qld Small 89 9 58.7 10.1% 66.0%
GATTON Qld Mid 101 8 44.8 7.9% 44.4%
GATTON Qld Large 58 8 113.8 13.8% 196.2%
GAWLER SA Small 251 42 241.7 16.7% 96.3%
GAWLER SA Mid 270 34 223.9 12.6% 82.9%
GAWLER SA Large 219 15 117.4 6.8% 53.6%
GOLD COAST Qld Small 1147 189 1126.6 16.5% 98.2%
GOLD COAST Qld Mid 1077 130 963.8 12.1% 89.5%
GOLD COAST Qld Large 956 74 834.4 7.7% 87.3%
GOLD COAST-ORIG QLD Small 92 14 82.1 15.2% 89.2%
GOLD COAST-ORIG QLD Mid 106 15 109.4 14.2% 103.2%
GOLD COAST-ORIG QLD Large 68 7 60.4 10.3% 88.8%
GEELONG Vic Small 473 69 384.4 14.6% 81.3%
GEELONG Vic Mid 432 47 330.3 10.9% 76.5%
GEELONG Vic Large 334 19 256.9 5.7% 76.9%
GERALDTON WA Small 126 14 73.1 11.1% 58.0%
GERALDTON WA Mid 108 17 132.9 15.7% 123.1%
GERALDTON WA Large 85 5 33.8 5.9% 39.8%
GILGANDRA NSW Small 49 5 27.0 10.2% 55.1%
GILGANDRA NSW Mid 51 2 32.6 3.9% 63.9%
GILGANDRA NSW Large 42 3 96.2 7.1% 229.0%